Extreme rain rise predicted
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Most of the world’s population will see new rainfall extremes in the next 20 years, experts say.
A new study suggests that more than two-thirds of the global population will experience significant changes in temperature and rainfall patterns over the next two decades, particularly if carbon emissions are not sharply reduced.
According to researchers from Norway and the United Kingdom, this prediction is based on large-scale climate simulations that model future weather extremes under varying emissions scenarios.
The scientists estimate that under a high-emissions trajectory, around 70 per cent of people worldwide will be affected by rapid shifts in climate, with regions in the tropics and subtropics expected to experience the most extreme changes.
Northern high-latitude areas, along with parts of Asia and Africa, are also likely to see dramatic changes in rainfall patterns.
“Without significant emission cuts, the scale of the projected climate change could outpace the ability of many societies to adapt,” says Carley Iles, one of the lead researchers.
The study, published in Nature Geoscience, suggests that rapid mitigation efforts could substantially reduce these impacts.
In the most optimistic scenario, which assumes deep and rapid cuts to carbon emissions, the proportion of the global population exposed to such extreme weather would drop to 20 per cent.
Previous research has largely focused on the magnitude of changes in weather extremes, but this study emphasises the rate at which these changes will occur, arguing that society's ability to cope is directly related to the speed of climatic shifts.
The findings underline the critical need for both mitigation strategies to reduce emissions and adaptation plans to manage the inevitable climate impacts.
This modelling of future extremes paints a stark picture for policymakers and global leaders, who face mounting pressure to accelerate climate action.