AMR deaths predicted
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Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) could result in over 39 million deaths by 2050, according to new analysis.
The Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance (GRAM) Project has completed the first global study of AMR trends, spanning from 1990 to 2021.
Experts warn that without urgent action, the threat of AMR will only grow, with annual deaths projected to increase by 70 per cent by 2050.
AMR occurs when bacteria, viruses, and other pathogens evolve and become resistant to treatments like antibiotics.
The study estimates that more than one million people died each year due to AMR between 1990 and 2021.
This figure is expected to rise sharply, with AMR predicted to directly cause 1.91 million deaths per year by 2050, compared to 1.14 million deaths in 2021.
While deaths from AMR in children under five years old dropped by 50 per cent over the study period, AMR-related deaths among people aged 70 and over increased by more than 80 per cent.
This trend is projected to worsen as populations age, with deaths among those over 70 expected to more than double by 2050.
The authors estimate that if current trends continue, the cumulative death toll from AMR could reach over 39 million by 2050.
However, the study offers hope that improved access to healthcare and antibiotics could prevent up to 92 million deaths over the same period.
Efforts to improve infection prevention, vaccination, and the development of new antibiotics targeting highly resistant bacteria are seen as critical to combating this global health crisis.
Regional disparities were also significant, with South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and parts of Southeast Asia forecast to bear the highest burden of AMR deaths.
The study suggests that without intervention, the global impact of AMR will continue to escalate, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.
Experts stress that AMR is a growing threat that has outpaced other global health challenges such as HIV/AIDS and malaria.
In 2019, AMR was responsible for more deaths than either of these diseases.
The findings call for coordinated global efforts to tackle AMR, including strengthening healthcare systems, improving antibiotic access, and accelerating research into new treatments.